The title–in fact, all–of this post comes from the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, a book about knowing what you don’t know.
“I noticed that very intelligent and informed person were at no advantage over cabdrivers in their predictions, but there was a crucial difference. Cabdrivers did no believe that they understood as much as learned people–really, they were not the experts and they knew it. Nobody knew anything, but elite thinkers thought that they knew more than the rest because they were elite thinkers, and if you’re a member of the elite, you automatically know more than the nonelite.”
Knowing nothing can be good. And yes, knowing too much can be bad.
Just try not to think like a technician (or a member of the elite).
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